Sinopse

Econodays economists look at the weeks important economic events.

Episódios

  • UP 206: US Consumer on Comeback, But Will Europe Follow?

    UP 206: US Consumer on Comeback, But Will Europe Follow?

    16/06/2020 Duração: 29min

    Government stimulus together with pent-up demand drove US retail sales sharply higher in May, raising the question whether consumer spending in Europe may also rebound. Other topics include quantitative easing at the Bank of England, foreign exchange intervention at the Swiss National Bank, and Europe's stake in ongoing Brexit negotiations.

  • UP 205: Indications of a V-Recovery Are Hard to Find

    UP 205: Indications of a V-Recovery Are Hard to Find

    09/06/2020 Duração: 20min

    Outside of May's wildly strong US employment report, there is very little if any evidence of economic strength, whether in the US or Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the outlook for Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement and revisit last week's European Central Bank meeting that produced a burst of new QE.

  • UP 204: Troubles in Hong Kong and the US ECB Adds Major Stimulus

    UP 204: Troubles in Hong Kong and the US; ECB Adds Major Stimulus

    04/06/2020 Duração: 30min

    Hong Kong, hit previously by US-China trade disputes then civil unrest then Covid-19, is now being hit by China's security move which is raising questions over the city's status as a global financial center. Our panel also discusses social strife and unemployment in the US, the European Central Bank's dynamic but also careful move to increase QE, and the latest on Brexit and whether a no-deal trade deal is a risk.

  • UP 203: Virus Effects on Government Policy

    UP 203: Virus Effects on Government Policy

    19/05/2020 Duração: 21min

    Now is the testing time for cultural traditions in the US labor market and political unity in Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender detail the latest in fiscal policy and also monetary policy including the pros and cons of negative interest rates.

  • UP 202: Deflationary Forces Underway Virus Blame Game Threatens Trade

    UP 202: Deflationary Forces Underway; Virus Blame Game Threatens Trade

    12/05/2020 Duração: 22min

    Prices for food may be going up but prices for just about everything else are going down. Policy implications of lower prices are discussed as well as what the coronavirus may mean for future production and also the risk that the US-China blame game poses to future trade.

  • UP 201: A List of Risks: Global Trade, Deflation, Monetizing Debt

    UP 201: A List of Risks: Global Trade, Deflation, Monetizing Debt

    06/05/2020 Duração: 27min

    There are some signs of improvement in Asia, but not any yet in Europe and North America where virus impact is still severe. Our panel discusses emerging economic imbalances and what monetary and fiscal policy can and can't do to help.

  • UP 200: The Ineffable Economic Collapse European Policy Makers Not Pulling Their Weight

    UP 200: The Ineffable Economic Collapse; European Policy Makers Not Pulling Their Weight

    28/04/2020 Duração: 26min

    The historic hole the global economy is falling into defies description. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss upcoming data, just released data, currencies, equities and also Europe's limited reaction to the crisis.

  • UP 199: Global Economy at a Standstill But Some Shutdowns Easing

    UP 199: Global Economy at a Standstill But Some Shutdowns Easing

    21/04/2020 Duração: 25min

    With oil collapsing and infection rates still high, good news is hard to find. But Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender do their best, pointing to stability in the latest data out of China and a sharp jump in an expectations reading out of Germany where restrictions are easing.

  • UP 198: Forecasting the Depth of Contraction as Lockdowns Already Ease

    UP 198: Forecasting the Depth of Contraction as Lockdowns Already Ease

    14/04/2020 Duração: 24min

    Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the possible depth of global contraction underway along with key indicators that are coming up. Relative regional performances and relative stimulus efforts are also discussed, all against a backdrop of easing infection rates.

  • UP 197: Markets Rebounding? Is the Worst Already Over?

    UP 197: Markets Rebounding? Is the Worst Already Over?

    08/04/2020 Duração: 24min

    Stock markets appear to be looking past an approaching round of numbingly bad economic data. Our panel discusses the coming numbers including next week's round out of China where quarter-end improvement is a possibility.

  • UP 196: Early Virus Effects Mixed, Some Surprisingly Limited

    UP 196: Early Virus Effects Mixed, Some Surprisingly Limited

    31/03/2020 Duração: 24min

    Global economic data now coming out for the month or March have not all been dire. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender explore the latest numbers; what they mean and the care needed in their interpretation. They also discuss the latest policy efforts to stem virus effects.

  • UP 195: Evaluating Marchs PMIs Central Banks Let Loose

    UP 195: Evaluating March's PMIs; Central Banks Let Loose

    24/03/2020 Duração: 21min

    Global flash PMIs showed abrupt and severe slowing for services but sometimes surprisingly resilient results for manufacturing. And a clear positive for recovery is the extraordinary efforts by global central banks to cut rates, backstop loans, and print money to buy government bonds. Also stepping up have been national governments which are announcing major spending initiatives with the glaring exception, at least so far, of the US government.

  • UP 194: Fiscal Stimulus on Top of Monetary Stimulus Economic Downdraft Underway

    UP 194: Fiscal Stimulus on Top of Monetary Stimulus; Economic Downdraft Underway

    17/03/2020 Duração: 18min

    National governments across the world are starting to follow their central banks with fiscal stimulus incorporating, in some cases, massive spending and support programs. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest news and data including dislocations in the financial markets and global economy.

  • UP 193: Central Banks Out of Ammo Global Fiscal Stimulus Awaited

    UP 193: Central Banks Out of Ammo; Global Fiscal Stimulus Awaited

    10/03/2020 Duração: 25min

    Fiscal stimulus increasingly appears to be the best if not only option to fight the economic effects from the coronavirus given that monetary action, with global interest rates below zero or approaching zero and after a decade of quantitative easing, appears to be spent. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the outlook for economic policy amid the momentous developments playing out in the financial markets.

  • UP 192: Central banks move to stem market rout fiscal actions awaited

    UP 192: Central banks move to stem market rout; fiscal actions awaited

    03/03/2020 Duração: 22min

    With monetary policy already limited by low to negative interest rates, fiscal policies such as tax cuts and new spending appear to be the next course to offset the effects of the coronavirus. Our panel discusses what options may or may not be available to global policy makers.

  • UP 191: Safe haven assets in demand as the coronavirus undermines investor sentiment

    UP 191: Safe haven assets in demand as the coronavirus undermines investor sentiment

    25/02/2020 Duração: 09min

    Rising concerns about the spreading Covid-19 virus have significantly boosted investor appetites for safe haven instruments. Jeremy Hawkins discusses what the latest data tell us about the economic impact so far and what to look out for over coming months.

  • UP 190: Global Data Already Weak Ahead of Virus Effects 737 Hits US Output

    UP 190: Global Data Already Weak Ahead of Virus Effects; 737 Hits US Output

    18/02/2020 Duração: 20min

    Fourth-quarter data were flat to negative in Europe and Japan and hint at the need for further policy stimulus going into the coronavirus. Initial February data on US manufacturing show no ill effects at all from the virus in contrast to January data that were hit hard, not by the virus, but by the 737 shutdown.

  • UP 189: Coronavirus Raising Increasing Risks Year-end European Swoon

    UP 189: Coronavirus Raising Increasing Risks; Year-end European Swoon

    11/02/2020 Duração: 22min

    Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, aren't yet downgrading their outlooks, but the unfolding effects of the coronavirus on Chinese output may be raising the odds for another round of global rate cuts. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss a rare plunge in European economic activity at year-end as well as the risk in Asia, where economies are seeking stimulus, of an emerging currency war.

  • UP 188: Virus Impact on Asia US Manufacturing, European Growth Assessed

    UP 188: Virus Impact on Asia; US Manufacturing, European Growth Assessed

    04/02/2020 Duração: 23min

    Patience will be key when assessing the unfolding impact of the coronavirus on Asian economies, though initial indications have been moderate and not dramatic. Our panel also discusses US manufacturing, which appears to be accelerating though not all the data are favorable, and also the latest numbers from Europe and the UK where weakness is the trend.

  • UP 187: Fed Outlook Stable, BoE Wavering and Coronavirus Adds to Uncertainty

    UP 187: Fed Outlook Stable, BoE Wavering and Coronavirus Adds to Uncertainty

    30/01/2020 Duração: 23min

    The Federal Reserve is keeping rates steady and will continue, at least for the next few months, to add liquidity to the banking system which may be good news for US markets. For UK markets, the Bank of England still sees rates going up at some point but acknowledges it may yet have to cut if the hard data do not improve. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the market impact of the coronavirus and they round up the latest economic data, including strength in Eurozone economic sentiment and indicators in the US that are pointing to a strong employment report for January.

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